Hydrological modelling for climate-change impact assessment

Project leader

Funding source

Formas - The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning

Project Details

Start date: 01/01/2008
End date: 31/12/2010
Funding: 2472000 SEK


Increased risks of both droughts to floods have been mentioned as potential climate change effects on water resources. There is a demand on the scientific community to evaluate the effects of a climate change. This research application aims at developing good modelling procedures for the use of climate model simulations as input for hydrological modelling for impact assessment. While there have been many studies assessing impacts on average annual and seasonal flows there are few studies focusing on flow variability including extreme flows. Much progress has been made in both global and regional climate models in recent years, but the outputs from these models still have to be scaled before they can be used in hydrological model applications. There are many reasons for this, but the most important are a mismatch of scales and that local features of the landscape are insufficiently incorporated. The objectives of this project are to evaluate and further develop different approaches to downscale and adjust the output of global and regional climate models for hydrological predictions. The methods will be based on an integrated evaluation of different climate variables through catchment modelling. This will improve our capability for predicting climate change impacts on runoff and its variability, droughts and floods. An important part of the project is the estimation of the combined uncertainties of the simulation of catchment-scale impacts of climate change.

External Partners

Last updated on 2017-24-03 at 12:56