Regime Shifts in the Baltic Sea Ecosystem-Modelling Complex Adaptive Ecosystems and Governance Implications

Project leader


Funding source

Formas - The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning

Project Details

Start date: 01/01/2010
End date: 31/12/2013
Funding: 17600000 SEK


The first objective of this study is to analyse time series from the Baltic Sea addressing river loads of water and nutrients, biogeochemical conditions of the Baltic Sea, its food web structure and fish stocks in order to develop and test regime shift indicators and describe revealed basin-specific regime shifts. The modelling tools of the Baltic Nest institute will be used attempting to detect and properly simulate the exposed tipping points in the various subsystems of the Baltic Sea. Scenario analyses of ecosystem linkages and sectoral conflicts (e.g. agricultural versus fisheries) will be given, addressing ecosystem-based management options for eutrophication and fishing and taking into account their stochastic interplay. The knowledge thus gained from these analyses will be used to suggest governance structures on a national, Baltic Sea countries and EU level that are able capture and prevent regime shifts by applying early warning signals, i.e., regime shift indicators.

Last updated on 2017-24-03 at 12:54