Spread of epidemics in structured and dynamic populations


Funding source

Swedish Research Council - Vetenskapsrådet (VR)


Project Details

Start date: 01/01/2017
End date: 31/12/2020
Funding: 2800000 SEK


Description

The importance of understanding the spread of infectious diseases has
been highlighted during epidemics over recent decades, such as HIV, A
H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009 and the recent Ebola outbreak.
Mathematical models are pivotal for gaining insight in the dynamics of
the spread and for deciding on measures needed to control the disease.
An
important factor influencing epidemic spread and the effectiveness of
control measures is the (possibly changing) contact/social structure
within a population and the composition of the population, i.e. whom
contacts whom regularly and how susceptible different individuals in the
population are.
From a public health perspective, it is important
to know how the population structure affect the qualitative behaviour of
the epidemic spread in real time and how this affects the qualitative
relationship between the observed spread and the effectiveness of
control measures.

In addition to being an essential tool for
public health policy, the mathematical theory used in epidemic models,
such as continuous time branching processes, percolation models and
random graphs are interesting in its own right. Further development of
those models is the main focus of the proposed research. However, the
proposed extensions of the models are still directed towards epidemic
modelling and further understanding of the full models will increase our
understanding of the spread of infectious diseases in real life.


Last updated on 2017-05-10 at 11:53